Europe Biannual Construction Market Report 1Q/2Q 2025
Poland
Top opportunities
Data centres: Growing demand for digital infrastructure and energy-efficient data storage solutions.
Energy: Strong focus on renewable energy projects and infrastructure modernization.
Industrial, manufacturing and logistics: Expanding demand for warehouses, manufacturing facilities, and logistics hubs.
Infrastructure: Ongoing investments in transport, utilities, and communication networks.
Top trends
Sustainable construction/net zero: Increased focus on eco-friendly building methods and achieving net zero carbon targets.
Use of digital tools, data and artificial intelligence: Growing adoption of digital technologies and AI to enhance efficiency and innovation in construction projects.
Local economic indicators
Poland’s economy rebounded in 2024, with year-over-year (YoY) gross domestic product (GDP) expected to have grown by 3%, a sharp improvement from 0.1% growth in 2023 as reported by The European Commission. This recovery was supported by strong private consumption, increased government spending on family support programs, improved consumer sentiment, and easing inflationary pressures. Growth is expected to accelerate to 3.6% in 2025, aided by robust public consumption and reconstruction efforts following the September 2024 floods. A slight slowdown to 3.1% is forecast for 2026 as growth normalises. When viewing GDP compared to the previous period, QoQ, Eurostat reports that Poland experienced a negative movement of 0.1% between 2Q and 3Q 2024.
Eurostat also reports that in 2024, the construction industry’s gross value added, which measures its contribution to Poland’s overall GDP, remained stable at approximately 6% of the total GDP.
Eurostat's Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) for 2024 is expected to have averaged 3.8%, with inflation having risen from around 3% to close to 4% over the course of the year. Inflation is projected to continue rising to 4.7% in 2025 due to the unfreezing of energy prices and excise duty hikes before falling to 3.0% in 2026 as disinflation in services takes hold.
Employment figures fell by 0.3% in 2024, resulting in an unemployment rate of 2.9%. This rate is expected to remain largely stable at 2.8% in 2025 and 2.9% in 2026. A shrinking working-age population has been and is set to continue to be offset by increased employment among individuals displaced by the conflict in Ukraine.
Construction materials
In 2024, there was a notable decrease in the growth rate of construction material prices compared to previous years. This slowdown in price inflation can be attributed to a decline in construction activity throughout the year, a reduction in new orders, and the stabilisation of production material supply chains, which had been disrupted by the war in Ukraine. While material price increases are now closer to or at a level consistent with overall inflation, the market has experienced rising wages due to labour shortages, with unemployment levels averaging 3% in Poland. The following table of Gleeds prices has been updated to reflect these changes from previous reports.
Market outlook
Poland’s construction confidence indicator, CCI, stood at -18.4 in December 2024, reflecting a 1.3 point drop from -17.1 in November, continuing a negative trend that began in July. This decline was primarily driven by worsening employment expectations, which fell from -7.9 to -9.8, and was further supported by a smaller drop in order books, from -26.2 to -26.9. For context, since Poland began contributing to the survey in 1998, the average reported figures for CCI, order book evolution, and employment expectations have been -28.5, -47.5, and -9.5, respectively, indicating that the current figures are relatively strong. Furthermore, it is important to recognise that a decrease in the CCI in countries with colder climates during the winter months is also part of a cyclical trend influenced by adverse weather conditions, which slow order books and reduce work expectations.
Poland's largest factors limiting building activity continue to be, first and foremost, a shortage of labour, with the most recent reported figure of 71.3 in December closely aligning with the 3Q/4Q averages of 73.2. Secondly, a shortage of materials remains a significant constraint, with reported figures of 47.1 and 47.7 for the same periods. Insufficient demand, while not as strong a contributor, remains stubbornly high, rising to 20.3 in December from November's figure of 18.4.
Local office input
Forecasts suggest that in 2025, Poland will benefit from the EU funds under the KPO (NextGenerationEU), with consumption expected to rebound. As a result, Poland is poised to be one of the leaders in economic growth among developed European countries, with GDP projected to grow by 4.1% annually. While the early part of the year may see growth closer to 4%, it is hoped that the second half of the year will drive a rise above 4.5%.
The construction market is projected to grow by 7.9% in 2025, positioning Poland as a leader in Europe's construction sector. The robust growth expected over the next two years presents exciting opportunities but also may bring risks such as rising material prices, supply shortages, and logistical challenges, making it essential to plan ahead with contingencies for potential inflation due to supply chain pressure.
Gleeds recommends revising previously set project budgets to present-day figures based on local statistical information and our own internal data. Additionally, we advise investors to consider inflation contingencies in their budgets as materials and labour shortages remain unpredictable.
Nobu Hotel, Warsaw, Poland — Gleeds Project Management, Quality / Site Supervision and Quantity Surveying/Cost Management services.
